GUYS WHO THINK THEY'RE GIRLS AND SEXUAL OFFENSES

This from ChatGPT is quite interesting. Seems transwomen are really bad boys.

 

Debates about crime and incarceration often turn on comparisons between different demographic groups, and in recent years, attention has turned to the question of how transgender offenders fit into these patterns. A recurring claim online is that transgender women in custody tend to be incarcerated for sexual offenses at much higher rates than cisgender men or women. To evaluate this claim, it is helpful to look at national statistical agencies and peer-reviewed studies across several countries, and to compare transgender data directly to the established baselines for men and women who are not transgender or non-binary.

In the United States, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) provides the most authoritative breakdown of incarcerated populations by offense type. According to Prisoners in 2022 – Statistical Tables, “16.6% of male prisoners were incarcerated for rape or sexual assault” while only “3.2% of female prisoners were incarcerated for rape or sexual assault.” These figures establish a clear baseline: sexual offenses are far more prevalent as the “most serious offense” among men than women in U.S. prisons.

When transgender prisoners are introduced into the picture, the U.S. record quickly becomes murky. BJS has surveyed incarcerated transgender people in its National Inmate Survey, but these efforts focus on rates of victimization—especially sexual assault against transgender prisoners—rather than the crimes for which they were convicted. As BJS itself has noted, “Information on the offense characteristics of transgender inmates is not available.” That absence is crucial, because it means any broad generalizations about “half of U.S. trans women in prison are sex offenders” cannot be substantiated from official U.S. data.

In contrast, the United Kingdom has published more detailed counts. In a written parliamentary answer (Hansard, March 11, 2024), Justice Minister Edward Argar stated:

“As of 31 December 2023, there were 245 transgender prisoners who were legally recorded as male, of whom 151 were serving a sentence for a sexual offence.”

That comes to roughly 61.6 percent. By comparison, in the U.S. baseline figures, 16.6 percent of male prisoners and 3.2 percent of female prisoners are incarcerated for sexual offenses. Put differently, whereas men in general are already more likely than women to be incarcerated for sexual crimes, transgender women in the U.K. snapshot were even more disproportionately represented in this category.

Canada provides another point of comparison. The Correctional Service of Canada’s 2017 report Gender Diverse Offenders in Federal Corrections noted:

“The majority of gender diverse offenders identified in federal custody were transfeminine (82%). These offenders were more likely than cisgender female offenders to be convicted of sexual offences.”

While the report did not provide precise percentages broken down by offense category, the broad finding mirrors the U.K. result: transfeminine individuals are heavily overrepresented in sexual offense categories compared to cisgender women.

Swedish data offer a longer-term perspective. A widely cited 2011 study by Cecilia Dhejne and colleagues in PLOS ONE followed transgender individuals after sex reassignment surgery. The study found:

“Male-to-female individuals, after sex reassignment, had a significantly higher risk for criminal convictions, including violent crime, compared to female controls. Female-to-male individuals, however, did not show increased risk compared to female controls.”

This echoes the pattern seen in Canada and the U.K.: transgender women’s offending risks more closely resemble those of men, while transgender men’s risks tend to mirror those of women.

Finally, it is worth highlighting the small but important subgroup of transgender men. In the same 2024 U.K. Ministry of Justice data, Argar reported:

“As of 31 December 2023, there were 29 transgender prisoners who were legally recorded as female and identified as male, non-binary, or gender-fluid. None of these were serving a sentence for a sexual offence.”

The sample is small, but the finding is striking: it suggests transgender men in custody align far more closely with cisgender women in their offending patterns, at least with respect to sexual crime.

The overall picture, then, is one of divergence. Among cisgender people, sexual offenses account for about one-sixth of male prisoners’ convictions and a tiny fraction of women’s. Among transgender people, the limited but more detailed U.K. and Canadian data suggest that trans women are dramatically more likely to be incarcerated for sexual offenses, while trans men are not. In this respect, trans women’s criminal profiles appear to follow male-pattern offending, whereas trans men’s profiles align more closely with female norms.

That pattern, however, must be reported with caution. The numbers for transgender prisoners are small, particularly outside the U.K., and their percentages can shift dramatically with a few cases one way or another. More importantly, U.S. data do not currently provide offense-type breakdowns for transgender prisoners at all. Without such data, it is misleading to assume that the U.K. or Canadian percentages automatically apply in the American context.

In summary, the clearest cross-national contrast is this: cisgender women are rarely incarcerated for sexual crimes, cisgender men are much more likely to be, and trans women in the available U.K. and Canadian data are more likely still. Trans men, by contrast, generally align with cisgender women. But any claim that “half of trans women prisoners in the U.S. are sex offenders” cannot be verified with current official statistics, and conflating U.K. or Canadian data with U.S. reality risks overstating the case.