FLEXIBLE SMARTPHONES: THE SOBERING REALITY

Flexible Smartphones: The Sobering Reality  Friday 16 August 2024 IDTechEx Cambridge, UK    Flexible Smartphones: The Sobering Reality   Author: Daniel Parr, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx   Multiple consumer electronics giants, including Apple, Samsung, and Nokia, have previously shown interest in flexible smartphones. Indeed, it naturally seems like the next step after foldable and curved smartphones have seen development and commercialization in the last decade. However, the path to fully flexible smartphones is far from simple, and the reward for successful development is ambiguous. The reality of flexible smartphones is discussed in detail in IDTechEx’s report – “Flexible Batteries Market 2025-2035: Technologies, Forecasts, and Players”.   The major distinguishing feature of a fully flexible smartphone versus a foldable smartphone is that a fully flexible smartphone can be bent/deformed along any axis. In contrast, a foldable smartphone usually only features one or two foldable axes that function using a hinge. While foldable smartphones might be marketed as flexible, their flexibility is limited. However, they are much easier and cheaper to design and develop. In a foldable smartphone, only components along the folding axis must be flexible/resistant to stress, whereas in a flexible smartphone, every component must be flexible. Foldable smartphones generally have flexible screens and cases in the region of the fold, but the other components remain rigid and are placed away from the folding axis.   Illustration of a foldable smartphone (above) vs. a flexible smartphone (below). Source: IDTechEx   There are three primary value propositions for a fully flexible smartphone: Flexible components allow for more efficient component packing. For example, a rigid cylinder battery has stringent space requirements. A flexible alternative could be wrapped around another component, thereby reducing the amount of dead space. Modern, power-hungry smartphones have large batteries and CPUs, but the modern consumer wants a light, sleek design, meaning space is therefore at a premium. It should be noted that this argument fails when the component itself becomes less efficient when made flexible. Flexible batteries, for example, often have reduced energy density and capacity compared with traditional battery technologies, and as such, a larger battery volume is required. Flexible components are, by definition, more resistant to damage and deformation. A flexible smartphone is harder to break, e.g., by dropping, cracking, or bending. This could lead to a longer overall lifetime, which some consumers may value. Full flexibility could be a powerful marketing tool. A unique, hard-to-copy form-factor supported by a strong advertising campaign could allow flexible smartphones to see greater consumer interest than they otherwise would based purely on functionality. We have already seen this with some foldable and curved smartphones; the question is whether the potential success could justify the costs of developing a fully flexible phone.   The challenges associated with flexible phone developments are significant. Firstly, it would require the development of flexible versions of every component and mature enough development that normal smartphone functionality could be maintained. Secondly, it would require the costs of each of these components to be low enough so that the final product’s targetable market would not be limited to the extreme high end.   In the case of the first challenge, consider the requirements of a smartphone battery as an example. The average smartphone uses 100-500mA, depending on activity. As a result, smartphone batteries have capacities of 2500-4000mAh, so that they have sufficient charge for approximately one full day. Thin batteries, which include many flexible batteries, have maximal areal capacities of around 5mAh/cm2. This gives a minimal total battery area of 500 cm2, which is obviously unfeasible. Even with stacked thin batteries, battery space requirements would be impossibly large. Bulk flexible batteries would be more suitable, but their volumetric energy density could still prove to be a challenge, and this is just the battery. Other components, e.g. CPU and circuit board, will suffer similar losses of functionality when made flexible. The technology must be very mature for this not to be significant. IDTechEx anticipates it will be at least another five years before this becomes remotely possible.   With continued focus on the battery, the second challenge also proves significant. Traditional lithium-ion battery costs dropped to US$139/kWh in 2023. Meanwhile, IDTechEx estimates the price of flexible bulk solid-state and advanced lithium-ion cells to be over ten times higher, due to the requirements of flexibility. Immature manufacturing methods and minimal economies of scale also play a role. The difference for other components may be less severe, but certainly, none will be able to compete with rigid components on both price and functionality for some time.   After considering these factors, IDTechEx does not anticipate any kind of mainstream interest in flexible smartphones for the foreseeable future. It is plausible that one or two pilot lines might see moderate success when the technology is mature, supported by strong promotional campaigns, just like the earliest foldable smartphones. But certainly, flexible smartphones will not take any kind of significant share of the smartphone sector. The earliest that this technology might be ready is 2029-2030, though later is more plausible. For a more detailed analysis of the possibility of flexible smartphones and other flexible consumer electronics, see IDTechEx’s latest report, “Flexible Batteries Market 2025-2035: Technologies, Forecasts, and Players”.   To find out more about this IDTechEx report, including downloadable sample pages, please see www.IDTechEx.com/Flex.   For the full portfolio of batteries and energy storage market research available from IDTechEx, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/Research/ES.    About IDTechEx    IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or visit www.IDTechEx.com.