THE DECLINE IN VIOLENT CRIME IS SOMETHING TO CELEBRATE

National Review

 

The Decline in Violent Crime Is Worth Celebrating

By The Editors

August 18, 2026 2:15 PM

 

While there was a notable spike in violent crimes and disorder during the Covid-19 pandemic and the “peak woke” era in 2020, the FBI’s 2025 report shows an ongoing and accelerating decline in violent crimes in America. The violent crime rate dropped 9.7 percent just last year, the largest annual drop since the FBI started tallying these numbers in 1936. This is a trend that dates back to the Biden era and has accelerated under President Trump and is an unalloyed good that should be celebrated.

 

Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter dropped 18.1 percent. Robbery dropped 18.5 percent, and rape 7.6 percent. The U.S. murder rate decreased 18.4 percent. The FBI estimates that the rate of just 4.1 murders per 100,000 residents is America’s lowest since 1955 and 1956.

 

Recent municipal reporting reflects the broader national trend. Baltimore has reached a record-low murder rate, with homicides dropping 23 percent in the city in the first half of this year. Baltimore detectives, burdened by fewer cases, are now clearing a record number of cases. So, not only is the drop in crime a sign of increased safety; it’s resulting in more justice for the remaining criminals and victims.

 

Trump has tried to take credit for the trend, citing the deployment of national guardsmen to certain cities, especially Washington, D.C., and Nashville. But criminologists note that the decline in violent crime is too widespread and consistent to be attributable to any one set of policies, whether national or municipal.

 

Likely we are seeing the results of several cultural and technological changes that converge in this direction. People spend more time online, glued to phones and tablets. The cellphones themselves may have made drug-dealing less territorial. There has also been an incredible growth in surveillance technology — whether Flock cameras, Ring-style camera-doorbells, or cellphone users recording every incident — that dissuades criminals from risk-taking and helps lead to the apprehension of criminals. Some analysts theorize it’s the explosion of online vice — porn and gambling — or video games keeping young men indoors. Still others point to exotic-seeming factors like improved childhood nutrition or the decline of lead content in paint.

 

It will take criminologists and sociologists years of study to begin sussing out the true causes of the decline. But what’s not in doubt is that this fall in violent crime is a boon to American cities and to American social life generally — and another sign that the doomsayers about this country are blinkered and wrong.